I was this morning at the Churchill Club event with futurist Paul Saffo. His talk was about the art of forecasting the future in order to make better decisions in the present. For Saffo, the bottom line of good forecasting is to step back and look at the big picture. Sounds easier said then done!
Furthermore, Saffo also recommended to look at the past, in order to understand the present and ultimately better predict the future. Saffo also bases his predictions on what he refers to the "Doppler whistle": when he starts hearing relentless criticism on a particular topic, like flying cars (sic!), then he starts changing his views on it and picks it up in its prediction. Sounds a little bit simplistic to me. But hey... if companies buy it... good for him ;-)